Poland’s GDP. Latest forecasts available

The firms mBank and Goldman Sachs have presented their latest forecasts for the growth of the Polish Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The Central Statistical Office (Główny Urząd Statystyczny – GUS) reported last Wednesday that Poland’s GDP growth slowed to around 5.3 per cent in the second quarter. According to some economic experts, the result is worse than expected. This could mean that the Polish economy is entering a phase of technical recession.

In the first quarter of the current year, the Polish economy showed a good shape. GDP grew by as much as 8.5 per cent year-on-year, and by 2.5 per cent compared to a quarter earlier. Meanwhile, the second quarter brought quite a disappointment, as GDP fell by 2.3 per cent compared to the previous three months of 2022.

Poland’s GDP. Companies’ forecasts

Poland’s GDP growth rate will slow down to around 4 per cent year-on-year this year, compared to an earlier forecast of 4.6 per cent. – mBank reported. The bank left its forecast for 2023 unchanged at +0.4 per cent year-on-year. “Although the annual dynamics still show GDP growth (by 5.3 per cent y/y), quarter-on-quarter GDP was lower than in the previous period (by 2.3 per cent). The slowdown is increasingly evident and the outlook is not rosy either. However, what keeps us from becoming overly pessimistic is our lack of knowledge of the GDP structure (we will know the details at the end of the month) and the fact that we have already been pessimistic so far. The forecast for 2022 should, however, be revised. Our previous forecast of +4.6 per cent is too high, we are lowering it to around 4 per cent. We leave growth for 2023 as we have forecast so far: +0.4 per cent.” – reads the commentary, quoted by ISBnews on Thursday.

In contrast, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for Poland’s GDP growth to 3.9 per cent from the previously expected 5.9 per cent. “As a result of the second-quarter data, our forecast for annual growth in 2022 (…) dropped to +3.9 per cent for Poland (previously: +5.9 per cent). Looking ahead, we expect tightening global financial conditions and slowing external demand to weigh on activity in the second half of the year. Fading support from post-pandemic normalisation could also contribute to a reduction in growth in the region,” – the report stated.